European Fundamental Outlook 02/26/13 Inconclusive Italian Election wanes the Euro For Tuesday, anticipate the Euro to show downbeat gains in its currency valuation, as risk sentiment fell short in its overnight trading due to the inconclusive results of the Italian election as voter rejected austerity. The worse-case scenario is now seen in the Italian election in which the majority of voters chose anti-austerity candidates. In addition, Bersani and his allies could not form a government coalition, raising the potential of a new round of election. The Italian equities and bonds fell, while the euro lost against most of its major counterparts. Furthermore, the outcome of the Italian election created a risk-averse trading situation and could affect the euro heavily as the outcome remains uncertain. The negative turn-out caused the market to remain nervous after initial relief when the first opinion polls showed a fairly strong win to Bersani’s centre-left coalition. The election results now show that Bersani has won the lower house where the biggest coalition automatically gets at least 54% of the seats with a narrow margin. However, no coalition will be able to form a majority in the senate. A majority is needed in both chambers to form a stable government. Moreover, in the senate, Bersani only got 121 seats out of 315 and Monti as few as 22 seats, an example of which shows that Bersani-Monti coalition is quite far from having a majority in the senate. Berlusconi and Grillo’s five-star movement did better than expected and got as many as 117 and 54 seats respectively out of 315 seats. Grillo got as much as 25% of the votes for the lower house. In addition, the unfortunate state the Italian president can install an interim government. Election laws may then be revised and new election will be held. This will create a lot of uncertainty and as a minimum put reforms on pause until new elections can be held and a new government formed, which could easily take three months or more. Bersani may also try a government but this would almost certainly be short-lived. Consequently, the election results show that the majority of Italians do not want more reforms, indicating that structural reforms are much needed. Italy has failed to grow for a decade partly due to a lack of structural reforms. As markets are likely to be nervous until the consequences of the election results are known. The uncertainty about the political situation in Italy and the clear signal that Italians are unwilling to undertake necessary reforms should put pressure on Italian government bond spread, Italian equities and EURUSD. The negative sentiment is likely to spread wider, reflecting concerns that this could be a prelude to a re-ignition of the debt crisis. Commentary For today, another negative signal is projected for the euro; as risk sentiment fell short in its overnight trading due to the inconclusive results of the Italian election as voter rejected austerity. The worse-case scenario is now seen in the Italian election in which the majority of voters chose anti-austerity candidates. In addition, Bersani and his allies could not form a government coalition, raising the potential of a new round of election. The Italian equities and bonds fell, while the euro lost against most of its major counterparts. Thus, the outcome of the Italian election created a risk-averse trading situation and could affect the euro heavily as the outcome remains uncertain. The negative turn-out caused the market to remain nervous after initial relief when the first opinion polls showed a fairly strong win to Bersani’s centre-left coalition. The election results now show that Bersani has won the lower house where the biggest coalition automatically gets at least 54% of the seats with a narrow margin. However, no coalition will be able to form a majority in the senate. A majority is needed in both chambers to form a stable government.

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Forex Trading Methods Part 1 - Scalping with less risk

Forex Trading Methods Part 1 - Scalping with less risk මේක scalping කරන්න ආරක්ෂාකාරී ක්රpමයක්. මේක මුලින්ම demo account එකකින් try කරලා ඊට පස්සේ real account එකෙන් try කරන්න. ගොඩක් ලොකු lot size එකක් දාන්න එපා. . මේකට අපිට ඕන කරනවා indicators දෙකක්. Bollinger bands & Stochastic Oscillator මේ දෙකම MT4 වල free දෙන indicators දෙකක්. දැන් ඒ indicators දෙක chart එකට add කර ගන්න 1 හා 3 අතර තමයි සාමානයෙන් chart එක දෝලනය වෙන්නේ stochastic oscillator එකේ 4 ට ඇවිල්ලා තියනවා නම් chart එක පහලට යන්න ( bear trend ) තියන අවස්තාව වැඩියි. අංක 5 ට ඇවිල්ල තියනවා නම් Bull trend එකක් එන්න තියන අවස්තාව වැඩියි. සාමාන්ය තත්වය මේක උනත් සමහර වෙලාවට news release වෙනකොට Bollinger bands වල line එක කඩාගෙන chart එක යන්න පුළුවන්. ඒ වෙලාවට profit වෙනවා නම් trade එක තියාගෙන ඉන්න . අලුතින් trade දාන්න යන්න එපා. අලුතින් trade එකක් දානවා නම් පොඩි volume එකක trade එකක් දාන්න. දැන් M1 හා M5 time frame වල stochastic oscilator එකම අගයකට එනතුරු සිටින්න. ඒ අතර අපට Bollinger bands වලින් trend එක යන්න පුළුවන් උපරිම උස සහ trend එක ගැන දල අදහසක් ගන්න පුළුවන්. එකම අගයකට පැමිණුනු පසු mini lot 1 වගේ order එකක් දාන්න . stop loss & take profit වගේ දෙකම points 80 අගයක් යොදන්න. මේකත් බලන්න. Trend Line ඇඳල තියෙන හැටි.

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